Taiwan has voted and the EU's one-China policy now has to prove it can hold

On Saturday 13 January Taiwan elected a new president and a new legislature. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took 40.05 per cent of the vote, or 5,586,019 ballots. Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) took 33.49 per cent and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) took 26.46 per cent[1]. Turnout was 71.86 per cent according to the Central Election Commission[2]. The legislative count gave a different picture. The KMT won 52 of the 113 seats, the DPP won 51 and the TPP won 8, so no party holds a majority[3]. The DPP keeps the presidency for a third consecutive term. It loses the control of the Legislative Yuan it has held since 2016.

We write as a generation that has never known a Europe without the one-China policy. The policy says that the EU recognises one China and at the same time opposes any change of the status quo by force or coercion. The week after the vote shows what happens when Beijing presses on the first half and expects Europe to drop the second.

What the voters decided and what Beijing answered

Lai said in his victory speech that he has a responsibility to keep peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait while maintaining the cross-strait status quo. He added that his government would use "dialogues to replace confrontations"[4]. Hou conceded on the night and called on all parties to unite[4]. The result rewards continuity in the executive and punishes the DPP in the legislature. A president with 40 per cent of the vote and 51 of 113 seats will have to bargain with the KMT and with Ko's eight TPP members on every budget and every defence bill.

Beijing answered within hours. Chen Binhua, the spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office, said that "Taiwan is China's Taiwan" and that the vote would not impede what he called the inevitable trend of reunification. He said the DPP does not represent mainstream opinion on the island[5]. On Monday 15 January the foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that China "deplores and strongly opposes" the statements and congratulations issued by other countries after the vote. She said that China had lodged démarches with the countries concerned[6]. The same day Nauru announced that it would no longer recognise the Republic of China (Taiwan) as a separate country and that it was seeking the full resumption of relations with Beijing. Taiwan is left with twelve diplomatic allies[7]. Mao Ning called the switch a choice made independently by a sovereign country[8]. Taiwan's deputy foreign minister Tien Chung-kwang called it "ambush-like" and said Beijing had timed it to follow the election[7].

The sequence matters. The pressure in the first days took the form of diplomatic protests against third countries and the removal of an ally. Beijing has chosen to make the cost of the election fall on the states that congratulated Taipei.

Where the EU stands and where it is exposed

The European External Action Service issued its statement on the day of the vote. The spokesperson congratulated the voters on their participation, reaffirmed the Union's concern about growing tensions and said that the EU "opposes any unilateral attempt to change the status quo"[9]. The statement did not name Lai. The EU maintains no diplomatic relations with Taipei and it addresses the voters. The United Kingdom, outside the Union, went further. Foreign Secretary David Cameron congratulated Lai and his party by name and praised Taiwan's "vibrant democracy"[10]. Washington congratulated Lai through Secretary of State Antony Blinken while President Joe Biden said that the United States does "not support" Taiwan independence[5].

The EU's position has two documented anchors. On 7 December 2023, at the press conference closing the EU-China summit in Beijing, Charles Michel said that "the EU maintains its One China policy" and in the same breath that the Union is "opposed to any unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force or coercion"[11]. The EEAS statement of 13 January repeats that formula. The policy has not moved. The environment around it has.

Three facts define the exposure. The first is economic. In August 2023 TSMC, Bosch, Infineon and NXP announced a joint venture in Dresden with planned investment above EUR 10 billion under the European Chips Act, with TSMC holding 70 per cent and production targeted by the end of 2027[12]. The Union has tied a flagship industrial project to a Taiwanese company. The second is diplomatic. Beijing's démarches of 15 January were addressed to states that issued statements after the vote, and the Union issued one[6]. We do not know whether a démarche reached Brussels and the Commission has not said so. The third is political. The Union's formula depends on the phrase "status quo" meaning the same thing in Brussels and in Beijing. Chen Binhua's statement on 13 January shows that it does not.

What the Union should do before Lai takes office in May

The inauguration falls on 20 May. We propose four steps before then.

The Commission and the EEAS should publish a short written explanation of what the EU's one-China policy covers and what it does not. The December summit remarks and the January statement contain the elements. A single public text would stop third parties from defining the policy on the Union's behalf.

The Council should agree in advance a common response to the removal of Taiwan's remaining diplomatic allies. The Nauru switch of 15 January followed the election by two days[7]. A coordinated statement by the twenty-seven, prepared before the next switch, would cost nothing and would show that the Union watches the method as well as the outcome.

The Commission should state how the Dresden plant is protected against cross-strait disruption. The ESMC investment decision still depends on confirmation of public funding[12]. Member States and taxpayers are entitled to know what contingency planning accompanies a project of that size.

The European Parliament should invite representatives of all three Taiwanese parties to its exchanges on the Indo-Pacific. The legislature in Taipei is now divided three ways[3]. A Union that talks only to the presidency would misread the island it claims to understand.