After 7 October, one Union and many voices on Gaza

Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October. By 29 October the Israeli authorities counted about 1,400 dead in Israel and 239 hostages held in Gaza. The Ministry of Health in Gaza counted 8,005 dead, and more than 1.4 million people were displaced inside the Strip.[1] The European Union took three weeks to produce a common position on this war. We think the way it got there matters as much as the text it produced.

Three weeks of mixed messages

The first European message came from a single Commissioner. On 9 October Olivér Várhelyi announced on social media that the Commission was putting its 691 million euro development portfolio for the Palestinians under review and that "all payments" were suspended immediately. Ireland replied the same afternoon that "there is no legal basis for a unilateral decision of this kind" by one Commissioner. The Commission corrected the message within hours. It said it was launching an urgent review to ensure that no funding reached terrorist groups and that, since no payments were due, there would be no suspension.[2] The next day, in Muscat, Josep Borrell told the press that "the overwhelming majority" of foreign ministers opposed a suspension. He added that cutting water, electricity and food to civilians in Gaza was contrary to international law, and he recalled that the Union gives the Palestinian Authority about 600 million euros a year.[3]

The second message came from the President of the Commission. Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Israel on 13 October and offered Prime Minister Netanyahu the Union's "unconditional support". She did not comment on the Israeli order for more than one million people to leave northern Gaza. The High Representative said in Beijing the next day that she did not speak for the Union on this question. He recalled that the common foreign policy "is an intergovernmental policy, it's not a community policy".[4] On 20 October more than 800 Commission and EEAS staff signed a letter to her. They wrote that the Commission's positions appeared to give a "free hand" to what they called a war crime in Gaza. A spokesperson replied that there was "no contradiction" between solidarity with Israel and acting on Palestinian humanitarian needs.[5]

The Member States then took the matter back. On 15 October the 27 leaders issued a joint statement that condemned Hamas, recognised Israel's right to defend itself in line with international law and reaffirmed the two-state solution. On 17 October they held an extraordinary video-conference and set four lines of work for their foreign ministers: humanitarian assistance, engagement with regional partners, internal security and migration.[6] The Commission announced on 14 October that it would add 50 million euros to its humanitarian envelope for Gaza, bringing it to over 75 million euros.[7] On 19 October the European Parliament adopted a resolution by 500 votes to 21 that called for "a temporary humanitarian pause" to allow aid in.[8]

Cairo, Brussels and New York

The Cairo Peace Summit of 21 October showed the limits of European influence. Charles Michel told the summit that the Union condemned the Hamas attack, demanded the release of the hostages, recognised Israel's right to self-defence within international law and held that "a complete siege violates international law".[9] The summit ended without a joint statement. Arab leaders asked for an immediate end to the war and rejected any displacement of Palestinians. European officials asked for a safe corridor for aid. The two groups did not agree on a common text.[10]

Brussels followed on 26 October. The European Council needed about five hours to agree on paragraphs 15 to 19 of its conclusions. Spain, which holds the Council presidency, and Ireland had asked for a "humanitarian ceasefire", the wording of the UN Secretary-General. Austria, Germany and Sweden feared that this language would weaken support for Israel's right to self-defence.[11] The conclusions condemn Hamas "in the strongest possible terms", emphasise Israel's right to defend itself "in line with international law and international humanitarian law", call for the release of all hostages and ask for aid to reach Gaza "through all necessary measures including humanitarian corridors and pauses for humanitarian needs". They also commit the Union to an international peace conference based on the two-state solution.[12]

The vote in New York the next day showed what that compromise was worth. On 27 October the General Assembly adopted the Jordanian resolution on an "immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce" by 120 votes to 14, with 45 abstentions. A Canadian amendment that named Hamas failed to reach the two-thirds majority.[13] The Member States split three ways. France, Belgium and Ireland voted in favour. Austria, Croatia, Czechia and Hungary voted against. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Poland and Sweden abstained.[14] The Union had agreed on a sentence in Brussels and had no position at the United Nations twenty-four hours later.

What our generation should ask of its Union

Our generation did not create the two-state framework, and we are not asked to abandon it. We are asked to make it mean something. Four steps seem to us within reach before the next European Council.

First, the Union should decide who speaks for it in a war. The Treaty answer is the European Council and the Foreign Affairs Council, with the High Representative as their voice. The Commission's humanitarian and development instruments must follow that line, and a Commissioner must not announce a suspension that the Member States have not decided.[2][4]

Second, the Member States should instruct their ambassadors in New York to vote as one on humanitarian texts. A three-way split on a resolution that asks for aid access and condemns violence against all civilians contradicts the conclusions of 26 October.[12][14]

Third, the humanitarian commitment should be measured in trucks and not in euros. Since 21 October, 117 trucks have entered Gaza through Rafah, for a population in which more than 1.4 million people are displaced.[1] The Union should attach its 75 million euros to a daily minimum of crossings negotiated with Egypt and Israel and should report the figure publicly each week.[7]

Fourth, the promised peace conference needs a date, a host and a list of invitees before the end of the year. A conference announced in a conclusion and never convened would confirm every doubt about the Union's seriousness in this region.[12]