Nagorno-Karabakh empties in ten days and Europe watches from the border

On the morning of 19 September, Azerbaijan's Defence Ministry announced what it called "anti-terrorist activities" in Nagorno-Karabakh and demanded the complete withdrawal of ethnic Armenian forces[1]. Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that the peacekeepers deployed since 2020 had been warned only minutes before the strikes began[1]. The fighting lasted twenty-four hours. On 20 September, a Russian-mediated agreement provided for the withdrawal of remaining Armenian units and the complete disarmament of the local defence force[6]. On 21 September, Karabakh Armenian and Azerbaijani representatives met for the first time in Yevlakh[6]. Then the population left. The Armenian government counted 6,650 arrivals on the evening of 25 September, 50,243 on 27 September, 78,354 late on 28 September and 97,735 at six o'clock this evening[6]. The region had about 120,000 inhabitants[7]. On 28 September, the president of the self-declared republic, Samvel Shahramanyan, signed a decree dissolving all its institutions from 1 January 2024 [7, 8]. The same day, Prime Minister Pashinyan called the exodus "a direct act of ethnic cleansing"[6].

What preceded the offensive

The offensive did not come from nowhere. Azerbaijan had blocked the Lachin corridor, the only road between the region and Armenia, since the end of last year, and Armenia blamed that blockade for a months-long shortage of food and medicine [1, 4]. On 22 February 2023, the International Court of Justice indicated a provisional measure requiring Azerbaijan to ensure unimpeded movement of persons, vehicles and cargo along the Lachin corridor[9]. The corridor stayed closed. The High Representative told the Security Council on 22 September that the corridor had been blocked for months and that the Union demanded its full reopening[4]. A legal order of the Court and seven months of diplomatic requests did not reopen a road. That sequence matters for the lesson we draw below.

On 25 September, an explosion at a fuel depot on the Stepanakert-Askeran road killed at least sixty-eight people, with 290 wounded and 105 missing according to the local authorities on 26 September[6]. The dead were people queueing for petrol to leave. On 27 September, Azerbaijan's Border Service detained Ruben Vardanyan, the former State Minister of the region, as he tried to cross into Armenia at the Lachin checkpoint[7]. Armenia has applied to the European Court of Human Rights for information on his whereabouts[7].

What the Union said and did

The Union's words were clear and early. On 19 September, the High Representative said that the Union "condemns the military escalation in Karabakh" and called on Azerbaijan to stop its military activities[2]. He added that the escalation "should not be used as a pretext to force the exodus" of the local population[3]. He met the Armenian foreign minister the same day in New York[10]. On 22 September, at the Security Council, he said that the use of force to settle disputes is unacceptable, that Azerbaijan must "ensure full respect for the rights and security of Karabakh Armenians" and that the Union demanded unimpeded humanitarian access[4]. A further statement warned that forced displacement of the civilian population "through military or other means" would meet a strong response and recalled the right of Karabakh Armenians to live in their homes without intimidation[5]. The Union announced a first package of humanitarian aid[4].

The Union's instruments were thinner than its words. The European Union Mission in Armenia observes and reports along Armenia's border with Azerbaijan[5]. It has no mandate inside Nagorno-Karabakh and it has no mandate to protect anyone. On 26 September, the national security adviser of Armenia and the foreign policy adviser of the President of Azerbaijan met in Brussels under the auspices of the President of the European Council, who joined the meeting briefly; the Union asked for transparency and access for international humanitarian and human rights actors[6]. The exodus continued during and after that meeting. The strong response that the statement promised has not been defined, and the Union has imposed no measure on Azerbaijan to date.

What this means for our generation

The Union has mediated between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2021 and has described its mediation as a success. We were told that the Prague and Brussels meetings were producing a peace treaty. What they produced, in ten days of September, is a region without its population. For a generation that was told that dialogue, observation missions and court orders are the European way of keeping the peace, the lesson is hard. Dialogue works when both sides need it. Azerbaijan did not need it this month. The ICJ order of February shows the same thing in legal form: a provisional measure binds the State to which it is addressed, and it changed nothing on the ground[9].

We make four recommendations. First, the Union should define within weeks what its "strong response" consists of, and it should say whether the energy cooperation that the Commission President agreed with President Aliyev in Baku in July 2022 forms part of it[11]. Second, the Council should give the European Union Mission in Armenia the means to document the arrivals, including the testimony of the displaced, so that the Union holds its own record of what happened and does not depend on the parties. Third, the Union should condition any further normalisation with Baku on international access to the region and on the release or fair trial of detained civilians, including Ruben Vardanyan[7]. Fourth, the Member States should offer Armenia, which now hosts almost 98,000 displaced people, a financial package proportionate to that number and should do so before winter, since the people who crossed the Lachin checkpoint this week will need housing within weeks[6].