The Commission's proposal for the 2028 to 2034 budget and its national and regional plans

On 16 July 2025 the Commission adopted its proposal for the Multiannual Financial Framework for 2028 to 2034. President von der Leyen presented it in Brussels as a "EUR 2 trillion budget for a new era"[1]. The headline figure equals about 1.26% of the Union's gross national income on average over the seven years[4]. The Parliament's rapporteurs note that 0.11% of that total will go to repaying the borrowing contracted under NextGenerationEU[3]. The repayment is estimated at EUR 24 billion a year in current prices between 2028 and 2034, for an overall cost of EUR 168 billion over the period[2]. The people who will carry that repayment until 2058 are, for the most part, the people this think tank represents[2]. We therefore read the proposal from their side of the ledger.

One plan per Member State

The largest single element of the proposal is a new instrument called the National and Regional Partnership Plans. The President put the amount at EUR 865 billion and described the plans as the foundation for investment and reform[1]. The Commission's own explanatory document says the plans will move "from close to 540 programming documents to 27 National and Regional Partnership Plans" and one Interreg Plan[2]. The plans will cover cohesion, social policy, the common agricultural policy, fisheries, migration, border management and internal security[2]. The Commission proposes that each tranche of funding will be paid out when agreed objectives have been achieved[2]. This is the method of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, now applied to the whole of shared management.

Two safeguards accompany the new structure. The proposal sets a mandatory minimum amount for less developed regions, which the President quantified at EUR 218 billion[1][2]. It also ring-fences EUR 300 billion for income support to farmers[1]. For the social side, the Commission requires that 14% of the national allocations finance reforms and investments that enhance skills and related social goals[2]. We note that the European Social Fund Plus disappears as a free-standing fund inside this architecture. Its objectives survive as a percentage target within a plan that each government will write.

The European Parliament reacted on the same day. Its two co-rapporteurs on the framework, Siegfried Mureşan and Carla Tavares, said in a joint statement that the proposal amounts to "a real-terms investment and spending freeze"[3]. Mr Mureşan told the Budgets Committee that the partnership plans amount to an attempt to "renationalise the EU"[4]. The leaders of the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe and Greens/EFA groups said the national plans would bypass Parliament's role[4]. The Parliament's objection has a legal basis. Under Article 312(2) TFEU the Council adopts the framework regulation unanimously, and only "after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament"[7]. Parliament can therefore withhold its consent, and its press release says it stands ready to use all its powers[3].

Member States reacted no more warmly. The German government spokesman Stefan Kornelius said on 17 July that a broad rise in EU spending is "not acceptable" while national governments cut their own deficits[5]. The Dutch finance minister Eelco Heinen called the proposal too high[5]. The French Europe minister Benjamin Haddad praised the Commission's ambition[5]. Farm organisations protested in Brussels, and Copa-Cogeca spoke of a black Wednesday for farmers[5]. The negotiation therefore opens with the Parliament asking for more and the largest net contributor asking for less.

Competitiveness, Erasmus+ and the youth question

The second pillar of the proposal is the European Competitiveness Fund, which the President valued at close to EUR 410 billion[1]. Its defence and space window receives EUR 131 billion, five times the level of the current framework[1][2]. Horizon Europe is doubled to EUR 175 billion[1]. The Commission also proposes a Global Europe instrument of EUR 200 billion, a 75% increase, and sets aside EUR 100 billion for Ukraine[1]. Five new own resources would generate approximately EUR 58.5 billion a year in 2025 prices[2]. One of them, a lump-sum contribution from companies with a net annual turnover of at least EUR 100 million, is already contested by Berlin[5].

Where do young Europeans appear in this? The Commission answers with Erasmus+. The programme will be reinforced to EUR 40.8 billion[2], and the President presented that figure as a 50% increase[1]. The European Youth Forum published its reading on 16 July. It notes that the current programme has EUR 26 billion, that the European Solidarity Corps is folded into Erasmus+ in the new proposal and that the 10.3% youth chapter of the 2021-2027 regulation disappears[6]. Once inflation and the merger are counted, the Forum argues, most of the increase is gone[6]. It also records that 35% of participants in the youth chapter are young people with fewer opportunities, against 15% for the programme as a whole[6]. A merged programme without a youth floor will therefore reach fewer of the people who need it most.

We share that concern, and we add a second one. The proposal treats young Europeans as beneficiaries of one programme. It does not treat them as a group with a stake in the whole budget. The debt is theirs, the skills target is written for them and the plans that will spend EUR 865 billion will be drafted by finance ministries. Nothing in the proposal gives them a seat when those plans are written.

Four changes would correct this before the Council and the Parliament settle the regulation. First, the regulation on the National and Regional Partnership Plans should require each Member State to consult its national youth council and to publish the consultation before submitting its plan. Second, the Erasmus+ regulation should keep a minimum share for the youth field at least equal to the current 10.3%, with the European Solidarity Corps counted inside that share. Third, the 14% social target should be a floor that Parliament can verify tranche by tranche, with the data published in the same format for all 27 plans. Fourth, the own resources decision should state in its recitals that the new revenues serve the repayment of NextGenerationEU, so that the generation repaying the loan can see the account closed in 2058.