Liberation Day, the Union's vote and the ninety-day pause

On 2 April President Trump signed Executive Order 14257. The order declares a national emergency over the United States goods trade deficit under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. It imposes an additional duty of 10 per cent on almost all imports from 5 April and higher country rates from 9 April.[1] The rate for the European Union is 20 per cent. Fifty-seven partners receive a specific rate, and Lesotho receives the highest at 50 per cent. Steel, aluminium and cars stay under the separate Section 232 tariffs of 25 per cent. Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, lumber and energy are exempt for now.[2] Washington calls the rates "reciprocal". The Commission says the label is "neither credible nor justified".[3] We share that view. We also think the week that followed tells our generation more about the Union than the order itself does.

What happened between 2 and 10 April

Ursula von der Leyen answered within hours. She called the tariffs a "major blow" to the world economy and said the consequences would be dire for millions of people. She said the Union was ready to negotiate and ready to respond.[4] On 7 April she offered the United States a zero-for-zero agreement on all industrial goods. She said the Commission had proposed this for cars repeatedly before 2 April without an adequate answer. She also announced an Import Surveillance Task Force to track goods diverted from the American market to Europe.[3] The same day Maroš Šefčovič met the trade ministers in Luxembourg. Most ministers wanted talks before retaliation. Simon Harris called the Anti-Coercion Instrument "very much the nuclear option" and said most Member States were not ready to use it.[5] President Trump rejected the offer that evening. He said zero tariffs on industrial goods "would not be enough". He said the Union should buy 350 billion dollars of American energy instead.[6]

The vote of 9 April concerned a different dispute. On 12 March the United States had applied a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium. The Commission had announced a response in two steps: the automatic return of the 2018 and 2020 rebalancing measures on 4.5 billion euros of goods, then a new package on 18 billion euros of United States exports.[7] After consultation the Commission reduced the package and removed bourbon. President Trump had threatened a 200 per cent tariff on European wine and spirits, and France, Ireland and Italy obtained the removal. The Member States approved 25 per cent duties on about 21 billion euros of goods, including almonds, orange juice, poultry, soybeans, steel, aluminium, tobacco and yachts. Hungary alone voted against. Collection was to begin on 15 April and continue in stages until 1 December.[8] The Commission said the duties could be suspended "at any time" if the United States agreed to a fair and balanced outcome.[9]

That evening President Trump suspended the country rates for 90 days. The 10 per cent baseline stays in force. The rate on China rose to 125 per cent after Beijing retaliated. The President said investors were "getting yippy". Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said more than 75 countries had asked to negotiate.[10] On 10 April von der Leyen suspended the steel countermeasures for 90 days in turn. She said: "If negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in."[11]

What the week shows

Three points matter to us.

The Union acted as one trade power. The common commercial policy belongs to the Union under Article 207 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.[12] Within a week of the order the Member States voted a package by a large majority, and only one government voted against.[8] The Commission spoke for 27 states, and most ministers in Luxembourg backed its choice of negotiation first.[5] That unity is the asset our generation inherited from Maastricht, and this week it held.

The response was smaller than the shock. The 21 billion euro package answers the steel tariffs of March. It does not answer the order of 2 April at all. In 2024 the Union exported 532 billion euros of goods to the United States and imported 334 billion euros.[5] A 20 per cent duty on that flow is of a different order from 21 billion euros of countermeasures. The Commission says work on further countermeasures continues.[11] We think that work must be public and fast.

The pause is a delay and it is no settlement. The 10 per cent duty on European goods remains in force today. Steel, aluminium and cars remain at 25 per cent. The President has said he wants permanent tariffs and has asked for energy purchases as the price of relief.[6] He has delayed one annex of his order. He has not withdrawn the order. Our generation has lived its whole adult life under a trading system that the United States guaranteed. That system has deficiencies, as von der Leyen said.[4] A tariff wall does not repair them.

What the Union should do

First, the Commission should publish the zero-for-zero offer in full, with the tariff lines it covers, so that European citizens and American importers can see exactly what Washington refused.[3]

Second, the Member States should complete a second package that answers the 20 per cent order before the ninety days end in July. The preparatory file should include the services and procurement options that Regulation (EU) 2023/2675 on economic coercion allows. The Regulation entered into force on 27 December 2023 and has never been used.[13] Harris is right that it should stay in reserve for now.[5] A reserve weapon still needs a loaded file.

Third, the Union should use the ninety days to deepen its trade with the partners that make up 87 per cent of world trade, as von der Leyen put it, and to finish the single market work she promised.[11] Every agreement signed before July raises the cost of a transatlantic trade war for the United States.

Fourth, the Import Surveillance Task Force should publish monthly data on diverted imports, and any safeguard the Commission takes against surges from Asia should follow World Trade Organization rules.[3] The Union cannot condemn unilateral tariffs on 2 April and copy them in May.