The European Parliament's vote on the 2040 climate target

What Parliament approved

On Tuesday 10 February 2026 the European Parliament approved the political agreement reached with the Council on the amendment to the European Climate Law by 413 votes to 226, with 12 abstentions[1]. The text sets a new binding intermediate target. Net greenhouse gas emissions of the Union must fall by 90 per cent by 2040 compared with 1990[1]. The objective of climate neutrality by 2050 and the binding 2030 target of at least 55 per cent remain in place[1]. The vote closes a procedure that began with the Commission's proposal of 2 July 2025. The Council adopted its negotiating position on 5 November 2025 and Parliament adopted its own on 13 November 2025. A provisional agreement was announced on 10 December 2025[3].

The margin is wider than in November. Parliament adopted its negotiating position on 13 November 2025 by 379 votes to 248, with 10 abstentions. The Socialists and Democrats, Renew Europe, the Greens and part of the European People's Party voted for it; the European Conservatives and Reformists, Patriots for Europe and Europe of Sovereign Nations voted against[5]. The final text gathered 34 more votes in favour and 22 fewer against. The press release does not give the breakdown by group[1].

The scientific reference point has not moved. In June 2023 the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommended a net reduction of 90 to 95 per cent by 2040. It said that the Union should aim for the upper limit of feasible reductions in domestic emissions[6]. The adopted figure sits at the bottom of that range. The Advisory Board also put the Union's carbon budget for 2030 to 2050 at 11 to 14 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees[6]. The Union had cut its emissions by 37 per cent by the end of 2023[2]. The remaining 53 points must be delivered in seventeen years.

The flexibilities and what they cost

The agreed text departs from the Commission's proposal on four points. The first concerns international credits. From 2036, up to five percentage points of the net reduction may come from high-quality international credits from partner countries; the Commission had proposed three[1][2]. The Council describes the allowance as up to 5 per cent of the Union's 1990 net emissions, which corresponds to a domestic reduction of 85 per cent by 2040[3]. A pilot phase for 2031 to 2035 may be established to support a high-integrity market[3]. The credits can only offset emissions outside the emissions trading system, and they must come from countries whose climate targets and policies are aligned with the Paris Agreement[2]. Parliament added a safeguard: no funding of projects in partner countries that run against the Union's strategic interests[1].

Second, domestic permanent carbon removals may offset hard-to-abate emissions within the emissions trading system[1]. Third, Member States gain more flexibility within and across sectors and instruments[1]. Fourth, the start of the second emissions trading system, which covers fuel combustion in buildings and road transport, moves from 2027 to 2028[1]. The Commission must also analyse options for international credits in future climate legislation and must take account of the need to keep the existing emissions trading system stable[4].

The review clause is the most consequential change. The Commission will assess progress every two years, with regard to science, technology, industrial competitiveness, energy prices and their effects on businesses and households, and the level of net removals[1]. After a review the Commission may propose to amend the Climate Law, including the 2040 target itself, or to add measures that protect competitiveness, prosperity and social unity[1]. The co-legislators say that "the green transition and improving EU competitiveness go hand in hand"[4]. The clause therefore makes the 90 per cent figure a quantity to be re-examined every two years on grounds that include energy prices.

For our generation the arithmetic matters more than the label. The people who will be between 35 and 45 in 2040 will pay for the credits through the Union budget or through national budgets, and they will inherit whatever residual emissions the removals fail to cover. Five points of 1990 emissions is a fixed quantity. It does not shrink as the economy decarbonises. We accept that the credit allowance bought the majority. We do not accept that the quality criteria for those credits should be written later, in legislation that does not yet exist[4].

What remains for the Council

The Council must still endorse the text, and the amendment enters into force twenty days after its publication in the Official Journal[1]. The Danish Presidency, which negotiated the agreement, said that Europe had "united around our clear direction for climate policy"[3]. The Council's own position of 5 November 2025 already contained the five point allowance and the one-year delay of the second emissions trading system, so the formal adoption should not reopen the text[3][5].

We recommend four steps. The Council should adopt the Regulation at its next meeting so that it is published in the Official Journal before the Commission tables its post-2030 proposals, and so that the 2040 figure is law when those proposals are negotiated. The Commission should, in the legislation on international credits that the text requires it to prepare, apply to Article 6 credits the same permanence and additionality standards that it will apply to domestic removals. It should also publish a register of the projects and the countries concerned. The co-legislators should treat 2028 as the final start date of the second emissions trading system and should not use the biennial review to postpone it again. Parliament should ask the Commission to report, at each biennial review, on the gap between the 90 per cent target and the 90 to 95 per cent range recommended by the Advisory Board. The review clause could then raise the target as well as lower it.